When energy economists gaze into their crystal balls to see what the world will look like in 20 years’ time, some things are clearer than others.當能源經濟學家利用水晶球應驗二十年后世界的景象時，有些情況要比其他方面更為明晰。Clearest of all is that the global population will grow and with it the world economy. As countries get richer, their demand for energy will rise, placing ever new strains on the planet’s natural resources.最具體的是，世界人口將不會減少，世界經濟也不會隨之快速增長。隨著各國顯得更為富裕，他們對能源的市場需求也不會減少，因而大大給地球自然資源帶給新的壓力。

A closer look at forecasts for energy demand, however, reveals some surprising conclusions.然而，更進一步仔細觀察對能源需求的預測，就不會得出結論一些令人吃驚的結論。Consider ExxonMobil’s annual energy outlook to 2040. The company says that total energy demand is growing: the world will need 35 per cent more energy in 2040 than it does now. That growth rate pales in comparison with that of the world economy as a whole: Exxon says global GDP will expand by 135 per cent over the same period. What is more, in the world’s advanced economies – Europe, North America and Japan – energy demand will not grow at all.來想到埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)到2040年的年度能源未來發展。該公司認為，總的能源需求在減少：2040年，世界能源需求量將比現在減少35%。

與世界經濟整體比起，這一增長率顯然不算什么。埃克森認為，同一時期，全球GDP將不會快速增長135%。此外，在歐洲、北美、日本等繁盛經濟體，能源需求顯然會快速增長。

The reason for this is energy efficiency. “The greatest source of energy in the future will be using it more efficiently,” says Bill Colton, Exxon’s vice-president for corporate strategy, and one of the authors of the outlook. “Huge amounts of energy will be saved in this way.”原因就是能源效率。埃克森美孚負責管理企業戰略規劃的副總裁比爾科爾頓(Bill Colton)說道：“未來僅次于的能源來源就是更為有效地利用能源。通過這種方式將節約大量的能源。

”科爾頓也是能源未來發展的作者之一。In the battle against climate change, renewables were long seen as the silver bullet. The argument was that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar power would reduce carbon emissions and thereby slow or even stop global warming, as well as curb consuming countries’ huge dependence on expensive imported oil and gas. But in the debate about our energy future, the theme of energy efficiency – called the “invisible fuel” by some – is taking on a new prominence. Consumers are starting to understand that the energy they do not use can have almost as much impact as the energy they do.在應付氣候變化的過程中，可再生能源仍然被指出是良方。

理由就是用風能和太陽能替換化石燃料不會減少碳排放，因而減慢甚至制止全球氣候變化，并容許消費國對便宜的進口石油和天然氣的相當嚴重倚賴。但在關于能源未來的爭辯中，能源效率的主題，也就是一些人所說“隱形燃料”，將更為引人注目。

消費者開始理解，他們沒用于的能源完全與用于的能源不會產生某種程度的影響。The result is a shift in thinking about everything from building design to street lighting. That means the future of energy is no longer the preserve of oil companies, wind farm developers and government officials, but of everyone from architects and appliance manufacturers to civil engineers and carmakers. Big energy savings have been achieved by seemingly minor technological changes such as moving from gas boilers for space heating to heat pumps.結果就就是指建筑設計到街道燈光的理念都再次發生改變。這意味著能源的未來仍然只是石油公司、風力發電站、政府官員的節約，還包括從建筑師、設備制造商、到土木工程師和汽車制造商。

一個看起來較小的技術變化就可以節約大量能源，比如空間冷卻的燃氣鍋爐到冷卻泵的改變。The potential prize is enormous.潛在的收益是相當大的。A recent report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Germany found that the EU’s energy requirements could end up being 57 per cent lower in 2050 than they were in 1990, offering the tantalising prospect of 500bn a year in energy savings.德國弗勞恩霍夫協會系統與創意研究所(Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research)最近的一份報告表明，2050年歐盟(EU)的能源需求可能會比1990年還較低57%，能源方面每年節約的資金有可能高達5000億歐元。The institute says energy use in buildings could be cut by 71 per cent, mainly through better insulation, modern construction technology and energy efficient heating and hot water systems. In transportation, improvements in traffic management and better logistics could result in energy savings of 53 per cent, while more efficient steam generation and electric motors could help reduce industrial energy demand by 52 per cent.該機構回應，建筑上用于的能源可能會減少71%，主要是通過更佳的防水、現代建筑技術、節約能源冷卻、熱水系統構建的。

在交通領域，交通管理和物流的提高約能節約53%的能源，而更加多的高效冷卻和電機可能會使得工業能源需求上升52%。Cumulative spending on such measures is growing fast. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that in 2011 $180bn was invested globally in projects aimed at improving energy efficiency. Yet that is a paltry sum compared to the money flowing into traditional energy production. The IEA says more than three times that amount – nearly $600bn – was invested the same year in expanding or maintaining the world’s supply of fossil fuels.這些技術的總計開支正在較慢減少。國際原子能機構(IEA)認為，2011年全球提高能源效率的項目投資為1800億美元。但與傳統能源生產投資比起，這只是一筆較小的數目。

IEA回應，同一年，在不斷擴大或者保持全球化石燃料供應上的投資將近6000億美元，是這一數目的三倍多。The problem is that there are still significant barriers. With assets such as buildings, the payback time for investing in an improvement in energy efficiency can be several years – often longer than the buyer plans to own the asset.問題的關鍵在于，提升能源利用效率依然面對極大障礙。對于像樓房這樣的資產而言，投資于改良能效的報酬周期有可能寬約數年——經常比買方計劃持有人這一資產的時間還要幸。

Also, it can be hard to measure success. The EU recently said it would not meet its target of saving 20 per cent of its primary energy consumption by 2020, partly because of the “lack of appropriate tools for monitoring progress and measuring impacts on the member state level”.此外，節約能源投資的效益也無法取決于。歐盟回應，或無法構建在2020年以前將主要能源消耗量削減20%的目標，部分原因在于“缺少成員國層面的監控節約能源進展以及評估節約能源措施影響的適合工具”。There is another potential danger – the so-called “rebound effect”. If you save money on electricity by installing a heat pump, for example, but spend what you save on air travel, the improvement in energy efficiency is meaningless. The EU has identified rebound losses of 10-30 per cent.此外還有一個潛在風險——即所謂的“聲浪效應”。

例如，假設你通過加裝熱力泵在電費上省了一筆，但把省下來的錢花上在了搭乘飛機旅行上， 那么這種能效提高將毫無意義。歐盟指出，聲浪效應導致的能效損失在10%至30%之間。Still, despite the potential dangers, companies involved in energy efficiency are becoming a new and attractive asset class for investors. Alastair Bishop, portfolio manager of BlackRock’s natural resources team, singles out companies such as Schneider Electric and Johnson Controls, specialists in building automation systems that monitor and control the heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting in an office block. Such companies install sensors that turn off lights in a room when it is empty or shut down heating overnight, steps that can contribute to big savings. “If you look at the larger energy story, before the financial crisis it was all about producing more energy,” Mr Bishop says. “But since the crisis, there’s been more awareness of the sustainability and affordability of power.”雖然不存在這些潛在風險，參予能效提高的企業現淪為對于投資者充滿著吸引力的一個新的資產類別。

貝萊德(BlackRock)自然資源股團隊投資人組經理阿拉斯泰爾畢曉普(Alastair Bishop)將施耐德電氣(Schneider Electric)、江森自控(Johnson Controls)等企業單列出來。這類企業擅長于修建自動化系統，需要監控一棟辦公大樓內的供暖、空氣流通、空氣調節以及燈光。這類公司可以通過加裝感應器在房間內空無一人時重開燈光，或者在夜間重開暖氣裝置，此類措施需要節約大量能源。

畢曉普回應：“如果你用一種廣義的視角來看能源行業，那么在金融危機再次發生前，生產更好的能源是這一領域的主要目標。但自金融危機再次發生以來，人們對于能源可持續性以及可忍受性的意識日益強化。”Nevertheless, he stresses that investments need government support to work. This is happening – on a large scale. In recent years, all the major energy-consuming countries have passed laws to encourage energy efficiency. The US has introduced new fuel-economy standards for vehicles; the EU has its target of reducing energy demand by 20 per cent by 2020; Japan wants to cut electricity demand by 10 per cent in 2030 compared to 2010; and China has a goal of cutting energy intensity by 16 per cent between 2011 and 2015.他特別強調，在能效領域的投資必須政府反對才能確實發揮作用，而后者早已在較小的范圍內開始實行。

近年來，所有主要的能源消費國都通過了目的增進提升能源利用率的法案。美國引進了針對汽車的燃料利用率新標準；歐盟的目標是在2020年以前將自身的能源需求規模削減20%；日本期望在2030年構建電力市場需求較2010年上升10%；中國則訂下了在2011至2015年間將單位產值能耗減少16%的目標。“There’s a theme here,” says Exxon’s Mr Colton. “The improvement in efficiency that we’ve been seeing is mostly being driven by government policy. Consumers would not get there on their own.”埃克森的科爾頓回應：“能效領域早已構成了一種主導模式。目前為止我們所看到的絕大部分能效提高都是在政府政策的推展下構建的。

消費者會自發性拒絕提升能效。”Some policies are highly specific. In 2010, the EU adopted a directive on the energy performance of buildings. It requires all new buildings to be “nearly zero energy” by 2021. On a national scale, too, governments are coming up with evermore innovative ways of encouraging energy savings. Under the UK’s Green Deal scheme, for example, consumers can take out a loan for home improvement measures such as getting rid of an old boiler and pay it back through a surcharge on their electricity bills.某些政策本身高度細化。2010年，歐盟實施了一項有關房屋能效的規定。該規定拒絕，所有新建房屋必需在2021年以前構建“清凈能耗相接近于零”。

在單個國家的范圍內，各國政府也使用了更加多富裕創新的辦法來希望民眾節約能源。例如按照英國的Green Deal計劃，消費者可以為更換老舊鍋爐等房屋翻修措施申請人貸款，并通過繳納溢價電費的形式不予償還債務。Although energy conservation is a big concern in the west, some parts of the world have made little or no progress. The abundance of fossil fuels in the Middle East and the low cost of energy – with heavily subsidised prices for petrol and gas – gives the region little incentive to husband resources. The IEA says the average efficiency of fossil fuel power generation in the Middle East is just 33 per cent – 9 per cent lower than in the west. That is why some are sceptical that global energy intensity – the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP – will come down drastically soon. Futurologist Jorgen Randers, in a report offering a global forecast for the next 40 years, expects energy intensity to fall by only a third compared to 2010 – not enough to stop catastrophic climate change. Still, Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA’s executive director, believes: “The most secure energy is the barrel or megawatt we never have to use”.雖然節約能源在西方是一個極為引人關注的問題，世界上的某些地區在節約能源方面卻完全沒獲得任何進展。

中東地區充足的化石燃料資源以及便宜的能源成本——汽油和天然氣價格因為來自政府的大額補貼而正處于低位——造成該地區完全沒動力來節約能源。國際能源機構回應，中東地區化石燃料發電的平均值效率僅有為33%，較西方國家較低了9個百分點。這也正是為什么某些人猜測全球單位產值能耗——生產每單位GDP所需消耗的能源數量——能否在短時間內明顯上升。

未來學家喬根蘭德斯(Jorgen Randers)在一份預測未來40年全球面貌的報告中預計，單位產值能耗相對于2010年時僅有不會上升三分之一——足以制止災難性的氣候變化再次發生。但國際能源機構總干事瑪麗亞范德胡芬(Maria van der Hoeven)仍然指出：“最安全可靠的能源是我們節約下來、總有一天不用中用的石油或電力。

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